Analisis TLKM Senin 4 Feb

How Low Can You Go ???

Chart : Click Here

Pada tgl 1 feb, TLKM sempat menembus harga tertinggi 9400...another good lesson, seharusnya setelah melihat trend TLKM yang kurang bagus, langsung set sell di 9350/9400 dan terbebas dari beban spt skr seperti melihat pintu neraka tapi tidak bisa mundur/berputar arah

Ok...jangan terlalu dipikirkan, nasi sudah menjadi bubur. Lebih baik dipikirkan exit strategy nya. Agar tidak terlalu babak belur . Pertama yang perlu diperhatikan adalah...formasi terakhir candlestick adalah doji, dimana apabila doji terbentuk setelah uptrend, dpt dipastikan akan mengalami koreksi tanpa perlu konfirmasi lagi (click here).

Sekarang kita kembali melihat kebelakang bagaimana sejarah TLKM saat mengalami hal seperti ini yaitu Doji di level fibo rebound 23.6% pada tanggal 05/28/2007, keesokan harinya harga dibuka sama dengan penutupan kemaren (open = last day close)...dan hasilnya BLACK OPENING MARUBOZU
kemudian kita liat lagi tgl 06/06/2007, keesokan hari harga dibuka sama sama dengan harga terendah sebelumnya (open = last day low) alhasil ditutup dengan harga tertinggi kemarin .
get the point ??

Dalam dunia saham dipercaya dan terbukti kalau "SEJARAH BERULANG". Namun untuk kasus ini saat di trace back hingga juni 2005 tidak ditemukan (Doji di level fibo rebound 23.6%)

Beberapa indicator tidak menunjukan signal yang bagus. Paling atas adalah Stochastic Oscilator yang tidak memberikan signal buy/sell karena walaupun berpotongan namun masih di area antara 20 - 80, kedua adalah MACD sudah memotong 2 hari yang lalu, BB menunjukan tanda-tanda mengerut dan sudah ada 4 titik PSAR dibawah.

Jujur i have no clue for this, dan hanya akan berpegangan pada candlestick. hope for the best !

Counter Strike 1.6 Freak !

Hi...

just for your informations, I'm a Counter Strike 1.6 Freaks

I'm playing counter strike almost from 7 year ago, back when CS still version 1.1 . Yeah...i know bunny jumping is cool, but I'm never like it coz its soo unrealistic

Back when i'm in the college, a good friend of mine Edo take to a internet caffee called Winner and introducing me to this game...at first i thought this game is to complicated, fast paced and i'm not familiar with the keys or command...but i dont know how...i'm become addicted

since then...I'm become a regular visitor at Winner, even without Edo...i'm always sit in the PC number 8 coz in that place nobody can see my monitor so i can play more calm (I hate when people see my monitor). I'm play everyday almost 8 - 12 hours per day, and i'm always become a top rank

In college, i remember when our gank introduced to CS by Hans (YM:elendermist) we always play after class but not last for long ...and a good friend of mine HERI (YM:elmo_rockstyle) that very obsessed with CS, we always wandering from one caffee to another to seek blood (challenge) and often skip class only for playing in one caffee that wee believe some leet player that always play there, the caffee called Champion.

I'm remember back when CS came out with the biggest changes that bunny hop is not allowed anymore, Winner owners wont upgrade the CS server to 1.4 coz he's affraid the customer will move to another caffee, but i'm able to make him upgrade it also i'm in become his trusted assistant. I play for FREE but in return i must help him to install all game in his pc, manage the networks, and also helping him choose the right VGA card for his caffee.

I remember when clan war was booming back in 2001/2002 i'm playing with some of good players like Hendrik (HZ), Laury (fin), Alex (dor), and Kuda ....i think they are the best in gaming specially CS. Also the 2nd generation like Alam, Itak (Baba Liong), and other leet player from Winner. Yeah I miss the good old days...when we always play together, laugh and just hanging around together

Now? I'm still the BEST !!! but i'm only play in public server, i think HZ and fin still play for tournament, ahh...also Hans...a good friend back when i'm still living in Alfa Indah. What? you want prove ???? here the screenshot

So...meet me in Vivagamers server pub-2. I'm always play there with some good player like baby_vegeta, TeQuiLa, CinHan, chen hau nan, Mafia_Hungsing, and much more...

Lock And Load

ANTM Menuju 4000

Rencana awal pagi ini sebenarnya tidak mau trading...seharusnya support di ABN Amro, tapi saat melongok keluar jendela hujan deras sekali :( jadi males ngantor juga. Sambil baca² mailing list melihat index regional hijau. Sesi pembukaan ANTM kembali top volume. Sebelum nya target plan ambil TLKM karena bbrp hari ini banyak sentimen positif dan TLKM kemarin ditutup closing marubozu, diketahui pula support TLKM di 8800 sudah teruji dan terbukti ;)

TLKM - BAD MOVE !!!
Jujur gw hanya pengandalkan teori "Buy On Rumors, Sell On News" + volume, jadi pre-opening
langsung sikat TLKM based on rumors, kemudian liat ANTM langsung memimpin volume
sikat pula dengan full limit komposisi 70% TLKM 30% ANTM.
why bad move ?? check the chart !!


keliatan sekali tgl 1/25/2008 TLKM mencoba untuk keluar dari fibo rebound level 23.6% dan yang terjadi adalah gagal total...kalo dilihat kebelakang lagi...terlihat 23.6% itu sepertinya susah untuk dilewati. Memang betul opening TLKM langsung gap up di 9300 artinya tepat di level 23.6%, seharusnya saat itu jgn langsung hajar kanan, tapi perhatikan dahulu apakah sentimen pasar bisa menahan di angka tersebut sampai kira² 30 menit kedepan.

ANTM - VOLUME
sekali lagi Volume memang tidak pernah bohong ;) setelah kemarin BUMI sekarang ANTM dengan volume yang cukup besar, ditambah baru saja ngelirik milis ada berita Lap Keu ANTM menambah kecepatan akselerasi kenaikan ANTM. Hari ini netting 3725 - 3850 sesi 1. Di sesi 2 ga mau ambil resiko karena laporan inflasi Indonesia akan dikeluarkan BI. Betul...saat berita tersebut keluar dan meleset dari prediksi hingga 0.6% index langsung anjlok hingga -13, tapi kejadian penurunan itu hanya seperti shock therapy saja...index melangsungkan rally nya hingga di tutup menguat tipis ;). Menguatnya index dibantu oleh sentimen pasar terharap ANTM yang trus di buru oleh buyer...hingga mencapai 3900.

FENOMENA INCO
Lucu sekali, saat menjelang penutupan. saham INCO tiba² melejit, ada teori yang mengatakan "Kalo gak dpt anaknya....gebet emaknya" :D. Mungkin saja sih...karena 2 2 nya sama-sama tambang nickel, kalau misalnya ANTM bisa untung apalagi INCO yang notabene lebih besar dari ANTM produksi nickel nya ;)...jadi untuk antisipasi lap keu INCO, para spekulan masuk terlebih dahulu...smart move ;)
Ada juga teori yang mengatakan karena INCO sudah mencapai batas psikologi di 7950, sehingga langsung berbondong-bondong pada masuk.

The Doji

DOJI STAR

The Doji is also comprised of one candle. The Japanese say when a Doji occurs, one should always take notice. It is one of the most important Candlestick signals. The formation is created when the opening price and closing price are the same. This forms a horizontal line. The implication is that the bulls and the bears are in a state of indecision. It is an important alert at both the top and bottom of trends. At the top of a trend, the Doji signals a reversal without needing confirmation. The rule of thumb is that you should close a long or go short immediately.

However, the Doji occurring during the downtrend requires a bullish day to confirm the Doji day. The Japanese explanation is that the weight of the market can still force the trend downwards.
The Doji is an excellent example of the Candlestick method having superior attributes compared to the Western bar charting method. The deterioration of a trend is not going to be as apparent when viewing standard bar charts.
Criteria
1. The open and the close are the same or nearly the same.
2. The length of the shadow should not be excessively long, especially when viewed at the end of a bullish trend.

Signal Enhancements
1. A gap away from the previous day’s close sets up for a stronger reversal move.
2. Large volume on the signal day increases the chances that a blowoff day has occurred although it is not a necessity.
3. It is more effective after a long candle body, usually an exaggerated daily move compared to the normal daily trading range seen in the majority of the trend.

THE LONG LEGGED DOJI (JUJI)

The Long Legged Doji is comprised of long upper and lower shadows. The price opened and closed in the middle of the trading range. Throughout the day, the price moved up and down dramatically before it closed at or near the opening price. This reflects the great indecision that exists between the bulls and the bears. Juji means “cross.”

GRAVESTONE DOJI (TOHBA)

The Gravestone Doji is formed by the open and the close being at the low of the trading range. The price opens at the low of the day and rallies from there, but by the close the price is beaten back down to the opening price. The Japanese analogy is that it represents those who have
died in battle. The victories of the day are all lost by the end of the day. A Gravestone Doji, at the top of the trend, is a specific version of the Shooting Star. At the bottom, it is a variation of the Inverted Hammer. The Japanese sources claim that the Gravestone Doji can occur only on the ground, not in the air. This implication is that it works much better to show a bottom reversal than a top reversal. However, a Doji shows indecision no matter where it is found.

THE DOJI’S DRAGONFLY DOJI (TONBO)

The Dragonfly Doji occurs when trading opens, trades lower, and then closes at the open price that is the high of the day. At the top of the market, it becomes a variation of the Hanging Man. At the bottom of a trend, it becomes a specific Hammer. An extensively long shadow on a Dragonfly Doji at the bottom of a trend is very bullish. Dojis that occur in multiday patterns make those signals more convincing reversal signals.

Candlestick Basic

Long Days

The long day represents a large price move from open to close. Long represents the length of the candle body. What qualifies a candle body to be considered long? That is a question that has to be answered relative to the chart being analyzed. The recent price action of a stock determines
whether a long candle has been formed. Analysis of the previous two or three weeks of trading should be a current representative sample of the price action.

Short Days

Short days can be interpreted by the same analytical process as used with the long candles. There is a large percentage of trading days that do not fall into either of these two categories.

Marubozu

In Japanese, Marubozu means close-cropped or close-cut. Bald or Shaven Head is more commonly used in Candlestick analysis. Its meaning reflects the fact that there are no shadows extending from either end of the body.

Black Marubozu

The long black body with no shadows at either end is known as a Black Marubozu. It is considered a weak indicator. It is often identified in a bearish continuation or bullish reversal pattern, especially if it occurs during a downtrend. A long black candle could represent the final
sell off, making it an alert to a bullish reversal setting up. The Japanese often call it the Major Yin or Marubozu of Yin.

White Marubozu

The White Marubozu is a long white body with no shadowson either end. This is an extremely strong pattern. Consider how it is formed. It opens on the low and immediately heads up. It continues upward until it closes, on its high. Counter to the Black Marubozu, it is often the
first part of a bullish continuation pattern or bearish reversal pattern. It is called a Major Yang or Marubozu of Yang.

Closing Marubozu

The Closing Marubozu has no shadow at its closing end. A white body does not have a shadow at the top. A black body does not have a shadow at the bottom. In both cases, these are strong signals corresponding to the direction that they each represent.

Opening Marubozu

The Opening Marubozu has no shadows extending from the open price end of the body. A white body would not have a shadow at the bottom end; the black candle would not have a shadow at its top end. Though these are strong signals, there are not as strong as the Closing Marubozu.

Spinning Top

Spinning Tops are depicted with small bodies relative to the shadows. This demonstrates some indecision on the part of the bulls and the bears. They are considered neutral when trading in a sideways market. However, in a trending or oscillating market, a relatively good rule of
thumb is that the next day’s trading will probably move in the direction of the opening price. The size of the shadow is not as important as the size of the body for forming a Spinning Top.

Doji

The Doji is one of the most important signals in Candlestick analysis. It is formed when the open and the close are the same or nearly the same. The lengths of the shadows can vary. The longer the shadows are, the more significance the Doji becomes. ALWAYS pay attention to the Doji.