Wednesday, September 02, 2009

[INCO] 1 Sept 2009



Hope can reach one or two more point Photobucket
Already collect @4200, TP 4350. Since DOW is not too friendly this night, might realize half of the porto @4300, Good Luck !

Some data to be highlighted

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Update 2 Sept 2009





Photobucket Williams %R failed to move out from oversold area
Photobucket MACD pointing down to oversold area
Photobucket Stoch still cross in oversold area
Photobucket Double bottom @4150

Note : Double bottom based on the textbook is consider valid if separated not like in this case, in this case I just use this term because I see there's a big support line @4100 that need to be considered.

Most of the transactions traded @4200
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IHSG position is in critical points, but still on channels

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DOW is fluctuating. As per this time -2.42

Lets hope @4150 barrier is not broken, hope for the best !

Update 3 Sept 2009

Everything seem still on track, today's candlestick is full marubozu even with short candle and volume below average. Stoch and Will%R start to pointing up again, MACD still in oversold area. IHSG indicating golden cross soon according MACD(TEMA-Smoothed)

DOW seem friendly (+22), lets hope there's a gap up tomorrow, to finish up this project, btw 1st target 4300 already done, so next is 4350 as final sell

Update 9 Sept 2009



Sorry for not updating, got some problem with my internet connection here (SingNet sux)...what I remember just there's some news about INCO regarding their factories. But as you can see in chart, the candlestick is still on track and break 4375 at 8 Sep. At this time I have no trading stock for INCO. As per today candlestick seem INCO able to go up more than 4400.

So project INCO - Catching a dropped knife is success in 9 days ;)

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Maybe Miracle Do Exists - Happy New Year 09

There's some experiences that I think is very sensational, its start from the day before Christmas and after new year eve 09, I still feel the comfort till now. Maybe for them that have faith/religion this kind of experiences is just ordinary experiences. But for me as skepticism...I found it so weird.

It began just before Christmas...

I remember in that December, one of my friend (hmm should I say friend? since even we know each other coincidentally in stock forum and officially just meet twice or so Photobucket) just called Drey, she introduce me with this girl Tini, first I dunno how to start but dunno why, Its like a river flows and then we both become friends. We often go to see movie together or have a nice dinner and chat, sometimes we chat for 3-5 hours in YM. Its like oasis in desert that time, its the first time I want to go out after my breakup and I found that very amusing, very nice to have (girl)friends again just on the right time when I'm feeling that I have nobody in this world. When Tini decide to go back to her hometown on Chrismas eve, that time I feel alone again. So I decided to go back to my hometown too.

Still linger in my head, it's going be the worst holidays ever in my life, imagine a whole week without someone, not even a single person. So I just want to spend whole holidays in my hometown, enjoying my loneliness alone. At that time, even for checking my phone, I feel bored and useless to do that, i bet nobody still remember and want to say even just hi or happy holidays to me, so i just throw my phone and to lazy to re-charge it. I spent so many times with my cousins Asen, we play PS2, going to internet cafe, swimming, play basket, etc. I'm so damn relaxed and I feel like I'm 10 years younger, all i do just play and eat hahaha just like a Photobucket.

On Christmas night, just lay low on the bench doing nothing, just staring at the night sky, feel bored and looking for some activities, trying to re-charge my phone again, and what? 12 missed call and 4 sms Photobucket from my ex's (of course not the last one Photobucket). Imagine almost 15 years and she still remembering me as stubborn agnostic and wishing me a marry Christmas Photobucket. We chat till morning that night, expressing how grateful I'm and thanks her for still remembering me. On the next day we see each others and talking a lot of thinks, remembering good old days...when there's nothing to worry about, and she giving me a cd full of Christians mp3 Photobucket as Christmas present...hehehe yeap...she always believe that I'll repent someday. Again suddenly I don't feel bored anymore, I found someone that still remember and thinks me special.

Back to Jakarta, the joy's continue, we often go threesome Photobucket. Me, Drey, and Tini. Since Drey is in "It's Complicated" with her boyfriends, we often chat and share our thought, also we go to see movie or something...you have no idea what feel that day Photobucket just like sheik from Arab or something hahaha. The best part is we go karaoke and sing like a nuts. Also when Tini help me looking for a new suit to go to my ex's (yep the other one, again Photobucket) wedding, and with Drey partying around in X2 Photobucket before she depart to China.

I remember that day, when I'm feel so down. My mom asking me to meet this (should I say) shaman. He say that I'm a lucky boy, so many people will help you when you need to be helped. At that time I just laughing out loud, like I care about that. But when I thinking about it again, geez....Its hard for me to accept that, also not the mention also people that always saying "God Bless You" to me everyday. My logical brain can't accept this kind of statements, but its really realized and I can feel it. So that time, yes I remember just past 2 hour after new years eve. Maybe miracle do exists, maybe there's supreme being that controls our lives, or maybe there's another life forms so called ghost or something that sometimes helps me?.

Since the questions is still no exacts answers, I'll stick with Karma (which I feel is more logical than others religions) and I just want to say :
Its a phrase in Pāli language that taken from Buddhist Mantra. he transliteration is

sa bbe sa ttā su khi ho ntu

sabbe sattā sukhi hontu

and the translation is May All Beings Be Happy!

Thanks for helping me. Happy New Year 2009


Monday, September 29, 2008

BUMI Waiting For Tech Rebound

Hari ini (09/29/2008), BUMI dengan sukses nya mendarat di lingkaran pertama dari prediksi kemarin. Selangkah lagi untuk masuk ke lingkaran terakhir yaitu The moment of truth (based on my prediction yach Photobucket).

Hari ini terbentuk long candlestick yang menunjukan ada nya sikap dari investor/trader yang langsung menekan harga BUMI, sempat di tes hingga harga 3100, namun akhirnya masih di tutup di harga 3200. Apabila dilihat dari garis Fibonacci, garis E adalah garis 0% rebound dari tgl 08/29/2008 hingga 09/16/2008, harga BUMI sudah hampir mencapai bottom dari rebound tgl 18, posisi volume juga menunjukan peningkatan dari hari sebelum nya, apabila didukung oleh regional dan harga batubara, seharusnya BUMI bisa rebound teknikal di level 3025/3050 sehingga membentuk double bottom support.

Hal² yang perlu di perhatikan adalah...apabila ternyata support BUMI tidak mampu menahan hantaman dari seller sehingga tembus dibawah harga 3000/2900

Update sementara kondisi regional hingga tgl 10/03/2008 sangat tidak mendukung, berikut snapshot dari Reuters. Selain itu harga batubara dipasaran internasional juga turun, Situasi regional saat ini tidak menentu akibat belum di terima nya bailout plan di AS.

Tidak bisa berharap banyak untuk hari senin nanti, namun semoga IDX bisa berputar melawan arus regional. Sayang saya tidak bisa ikut memantau IDX senin ini karena saya sudah mulai bekerja di tempat baru Photobucket

update 10/04/2008 1:19:AM
DPR AS setujui Bailout Plan... semoga bisa untuk mengangkat index DowJones Photobucket

Thursday, September 25, 2008

BUMI Downtrend

Still downtrend....

Pada tgl 09/18/2008, BUMI mengalami rebound dengan kekuatan volume yang cukup signifikan, kemudian dilanjutkan keesokan harinya, BUMI dibuka gap up kemudian naik mencapai harga tertinggi 4225, pada saat itu saya belum begitu memperhatikan karena masih sibuk dengan ANTM dan INCO. Kemudian ditutup 3950, saya hanya melihat sekilas saja dan juga mendengar ada nya berita mengenai naiknya kembali harga minyak yang biasanya memicu kenaikan harga batu bara. Keputusan untuk trading di BUMI di hari senin 09/22/2008 adalah memanfaatkan momentum bottom revelsal BUMI dan juga penguatan harga batu bara, pendukung nya adalah IHSG yg mulai naik.

Trading plan saya adalah buy at once saat pre-opening dengan harapan BUMI akan melanjutkan rally nya ke atas, akhirnya saya dapat di posisi opening yaitu 4100. Pada awal nya cukup senang karena dpt harga opening, saya berasumsi gap up yang dibuat BUMI adalah breakaway gap up seperti dihari kemarin nya, dimana gap up ini sebagai tanda untuk melanjutkan kenaikan sebelum nya, selain itu ditandai dengan volume (as top 10 volume pada saat itu). Namun ternyata melemah dan terus melemah, akhirnya BUMI di tutup 3925. Pada saat ini saya mulai serius untuk menganalisa chart BUMI.

Kalau diliat dari trend line, terlihat pada tgl 22, harga tertekan sehingga tidak bisa melewati resistance 4175 dan tekanan tersebut berlanjut berusaha mendobrak support tgl 21 namun buyer berhasil menjaga dan ditutup tipis dibawah harga closing kemarin. Pada saat closing kemarin sebenarnya saya sudah bad feeling, apalagi dari hasil menarik garis simple saja (garis A dan garis B) terlihat pola downtrend. Reaksi dari perubahan harga tersebut memaksa saya untuk merubah rencana lebaran makan ketupat dengan operasi penyelamatan Photobucket. Target cut loss dah di set 3900/4000. Tapi sekali lagi namanya manusia...GREED keluar saat harga mulai naik ke 4050/4075 Photobucket sehingga dengan berani nya saya tinggal ke mall Photobucket kemudian ditutup 3900. Pada saat itu saya masih merasa BUMI BISA RALLY besok, Padahal pada saat itu sudah berarti sudah ada 2 KONFIRMASI yang menyatakan BUMI DOWNTREND (oh bodohnyaa....), tgl 24 BUMI dibuka lebih tinggi 25 perak dari closing sebelum nya, sekali lagi masih YAKIN akan melanjutkan trend ke ATAS (OMG !!!) yang akhirnya....tertekan dan terus tertekan. BODOH nya saat harga 3800 masih juga belum di pencet tuh tombol SELL, still can't accept the fact that your analysis is differ with the market, baru setelah sore hampir closing saya cut loss di 3700.
Kemudian tgl 25 BUMI melanjutkan downtrend nya hingga closing di 3525.

This is the biggest cut loss ever since I'm in IDX Photobucket

Apakah masih ada harapan di BUMI ?
Untuk saat ini masih banyak indicator standard (Bollinger Band, William %R, Stochastic-S) yang memberikan signal bearish. PSAR dan MACD mungkin memberikan signal bull namun perlu diperhatikan bahwa MACD lebih tepat di aplikasikan untuk jangka panjang, dan PSAR boleh dibilang lagging.

Bagaimana prediksi untuk tgl 26 dan 29 ?
Apabila penurunan BUMI berlanjut maka posisi support ada di harga 3400 - 3475, yang berarti hampir kembali ke harga saat tgl 19, apabila tidak di topang oleh volume beli yang cukup besar berarti ada kemungkinan BUMI akan menutup gap tgl 18-19. Berdasarkan pola candlestick pada tgl 25, terlihat ada perlawanan buyer pada saat harga berusaha ditembus dibawah support (dpt dilihat dari terbentuk nya tail dan closing tepat garis B), hal ini menunjukan buyer BUMI masih berusaha untuk mengangkat harga walaupun di hajar habis²an oleh seller. Apabila besok dibuka dengan harga lebih besar atau sama dengan kemarin ada kemungkinan BUMI tetap turun.
So watch out for this stuck day (hari kejepit Photobucket) lebih aman stay out terlebih dahulu dari saham ini. Semoga besok/lusa ada konfirmasi revelsal yang didukung dengan volume yang cukup signifikan

Updated 09/28/2008 - Bottom sudah mulai terlihat



Target Price 3000-3300

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

IDX Closing Gap 08/16/2007


Setelah hari sebelum nya di perkirakan IDX akan rebound, ternyata hari ini IDX kembali terpuruk, perhatikan kalau pada 08/16/2007 terdapat gap yang belum sempat ditutup, hingga hari ini gap tersebut hampir saja tertutup (perhatikan garis horizontal menandakan penutupan hari ini)

Kemungkinan besok akan dibuka gap down untuk menutup gap 08/16/2007 kemudian melanjutkan rebound nya. Just a simple thought and hope from me Photobucket

Update 09/10/2008



Ternyata ada kesalahan data, sebenarnya kemarin gap sudah tertutup (liat pic), dan kemudian hari ini dibuka gap down dan langsung dipaksa untuk menembus bottom tanggal 08/16/2007, akhir hari terbentung candlestick spinning top, terlihat ada big rush dengan munculnya spike volume hari ini. Apakah sejarah akan terulang kembali spt tgl 08/16/2007 ?

Update Result


Index kembali tertekan hingga hampir mendekati harga tahun 2007, Candlestick keluar dari Bollinger Band 2 hari berturut turut sepertinya elastisitas IDX mulai mengendur, dari data saya (tahun 2005 sampai skr) IDX belum pernah terjadi hal seperti ini.
Apakah akan ada penurunan lagi besok?